With the election expected to be called this weekend for a poll date of either May 3 or May 10, opinion polls remain too close to call.
The latest Redbridge polling, released on Thursday, showed that Labor was ahead 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis, hitting the lead for the first time in six months.
Source: Redbridge Group and Accent Research
More than half (51%) of respondents believed that the country was heading in the wrong direction.
Source: Redbridge Group and Accent Research
The latest Newspoll, released on Sunday, has the Coalition ahead of Labor 39% to 31% on primary vote.
Source: Newspoll
However, on a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition is only narrowly ahead, 51% to 49%.
Source: Newspoll
Based on the above, the most likely outcome if an election were held now is Labor being returned with the assistance of minor parties, the Teals or the Greens.
A range of factors have lifted Labor in the polls. Most importantly, the RBA’s interest rate cut signalled that the worst of the cost-of-living crisis is behind us.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton has also shot himself in the foot by aligning himself with Donald Trump, who has attacked Australia with tariffs and signalled an assault on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.
Dutton has also announced policies that nobody asked for, including sweeping cuts to the public service, an attack on work-from-home arrangements, and treating duel citizens as second-class citizens.
Dutton’s pronouncements on immigration have also been unclear and contradictory, as have his energy policies.
It was always going to be a challenging task to overthrow a first-term government, a feat not seen since the Great Depression.
Better luck next time, Peter Dutton.
