The Albanese government’s first budget, released in October 2022, forecasts net overseas migration of 470,000 over its first two financial years (2022-23 and 2023-24).
Source: October 2022 Federal Budget
They delivered more than double this number, with 1,060,000 net migrants arriving over nine quarters to Q3 2024.
The May 2024 federal budget forecast net overseas migration of 260,000 for this financial year (2024-25).
Source: May 2024 Federal Budget
Then December’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (MYEFO) upgraded the net migration forecast for 2024–25 by 80,000 to 340,000 (see below table).
Source: December 2024 MYEFO
Tuesday’s federal budget left the NOM forecast largely unchanged, dropping this year’s number by 5,000 to 335,000 but increasing the following year (2025-26) by the same amount to 260,000 (from 255,000 previously).
Source: March 2025 Federal Budget
The NOM forecast for this financial year is around 20,000 higher than the record pre-pandemic level of 315,700 recorded in 2008.
The 2025 budget also forecasts strong population growth for the major jurisdictions over the next five years.
Source: March 2025 Federal Budget
Over the five years to 2029, Australia’s jurisdictions are projected to grow as follows:
- NSW: 486,000
- VIC: 544,000
- QLD: 412,000
- WA: 239,000
- SA: 72,000
- TAS: 10,000
- ACT: 32,000
- NT: 10,000
- Australia: 1,804,000
Adding 1.8 million people to Australia’s population in only five years will ensure that housing demand continues to outrun supply, placing upward pressure on rents and prices.
How can Australia realistically hope to solve the housing shortage when it continues to pump large numbers of overseas migrants into the market every single year?
