From Energy Quest, which finally tells the truth.
The gas flows south are small compared to the total east-coast domestic demand of about 500 petajoules, but this does not tell the whole story. Southern state gas demand, particularly in Victoria, grows substantially (triples) during winter as there are about 2 million households in Victoria that are connected to the gas network. These households use large volumes of gas for heating when it is cold.
During winter, the SWQP reaches capacity for the peak demand in the southern states, and no more Queensland gas can be diverted to the southern gas markets. Some additional gas could be sent outside peak demand periods when the pipeline is not full, but that gas needs to be stored somewhere, and gas storage capacity in southern states is also reaching its limits.
And there it is. Build southern storage and pump in the off-season to fill it.
This is what Europe does. It is also what the US does. It is a very simple and grown-up policy.
Yet what are we doing? Absolutely nothing. The Australian.
Victoria is likely to have to burn coal for longer, endure a gas shortage and suffer delays in developing renewable energy projects that will cause significant economic harm and undermine efforts to reduce emissions, a report from an independent agency engaged by the state Labor government has found.
The findings will heighten concern about Victoria’s energy transition plan. Victoria has legislated Australia’s most aggressive energy transition policy, with the state committed to cutting emissions by 75-80 per cent by 2035, while bringing forward its net-zero target by five years to 2045.
Meaning the following. The Age.
Power bills in Victoria are tipped to soar, with a new warning that wholesale electricity costs are forecast to double over the next five years even if the state meets its renewable energy targets.
The projection was published in technical documents released by Infrastructure Victoria as part of its draft 30-year strategy.
They show that two separate consultancies, Aurora and Jacobs, were commissioned to analyse the impact of Victoria’s transition to cleaner energy.
This is going to happen not in ten years but next year if southern states turn to LNG imports instead of increased storage.
Even in 2028, at the height of the global gas glut, JKM forwards are pricing imported gas at about $16Gj during the VIC winter, and it is more like $20Gj during the Asian winter
The average of $18Gj is 50% above current local prices.
If Dutton removes the energy rebates as well, the price shock will be worse than COVID and the Ukraine War combined.
Just reserve the gas, build some more tanks in the south, and pump it south in the summer.
If you want it to be cheap as well, add an export levy above $7Gj.
Or get poorer.
