Election polling goes from bad to worse for Coalition

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This election campaign has turned into a dumpster fire for Peter Dutton and the Coalition.

After leading Labor on a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition collapsed in the polls, losing virtually every opinion poll since early March.

Two-party preferred vote

The results of today’s Newspoll show little change, with the Coalition’s primary vote dropping to 35%—below the level of the last election —and Opposition leader Peter Dutton now trailing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as preferred Prime Minister by 38% to 49%.

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Primary vote

Source: Newspoll

Newspoll now has Labor ahead 52% to 48% on a two-party preferred basis, suggesting a hung parliament or a slim Labor majority.

Two-party preferred vote

Source: Newspoll

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Voting for either major party is like picking between two different types of poison.

The only policies in the Coalition’s favour are its excellent gas reservation policy and its promise to run a smaller immigration program.

Sadly, the prospects of either policy coming to fruition are slim given Labor’s likely election victory.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.