Hartnett: Sell

Monday 28 April 2025

Michael Hartnett at BofA.

Zeitgeist:“If no recession, equity lows are in, simple; but can’t jump back on bull unless Treasury yields falling below 4%, and earnings growth stays above 5%”, asset allocator.

Tale of the Tape: 3Bs of Bonds (fastest 50bps UST jump since May’09), Base (Trump approval drop from 53% to 46%–Chart 3), Billionaires (>$5tn Magnificent 7 market cap loss) spurred Trump/Powell, Bessent/China, Musk/DOGE “blinks” & risk rally; 3Cs of China peace, FedCuts, resilient Consumer now needed to debunk “sell-rip” mantra.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.