How will China respond to Trump tariffs?

Friday 4 April 2025

TS Lombard with the note.

Trump delivered on campaign promises applying a 54% (34% “reciprocal” and 20% fentanyl) tariff rate to imports from China.

The move could impact 1.5-2ppt of China GDP in 2025. How does China respond? Strong fiscal, moderate monetary, passive retaliation–for now.

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:

$24.99 / month

$249 / year

Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.