Last week’s federal budget revealed that the cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) will reach $50.8 billion next financial year, exceeding the $51 billion allocated to the defence budget.
The cost of the NDIS is also projected to reach $63 billion by mid-2029.
The growth of the NDIS is the key driver behind Australia’s recent job boom.
As illustrated in the following chart from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the number of caring workers has ballooned since the pandemic alongside the expansion of the NDIS.
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As a result, the healthcare and social assistance sector experienced the strongest job growth over the two years to February 2025.
Over the next decade, the NDIS is projected to grow at an annual rate of 8.1%, significantly outpacing other social programs.
As a result, the NDIS will continue to drive Australia’s job growth in the decade ahead.
Indeed, the latest job vacancy data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), released on Thursday, showed that vacancies in the healthcare and social assistance sector are tracking around double the pre-pandemic levels.
This is despite the significant hiring effort that has taken place in the industry over recent years.
The high level of vacancies also suggests that healthcare and social assistance jobs will continue to expand as the NDIS care sector grows.
One major downside is that the expansion of the care sector will become an increasing drain on Australia’s labour productivity, as illustrated in the chart below.
