Another day, another poor opinion poll for Peter Dutton and the Coalition.
This week’s Roy Morgan poll shows Labor’s two-party support lifting to 54.5% (up 1% from a week ago), nine percentage points ahead of the Coalition’s 45.5% (down 1% from a week ago).
Therefore, Labor would win an increased majority if the election were held now.
Primary support for the two major parties changed little, with the Coalition up 0.5% to 33.5% and Labor’s down 0.5% to 32%. Importantly for Labor, support for the Greens increased by 1% to 14.5% (the Greens highest support for over six months).
In further positive signs for Labor, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rose 5 points to 86, its best level in almost 18 months since September 2023.
Just over one-third (34.5%, up 1.5%) of Australians now believe the country is ‘moving in the right direction’, compared to 48.5% (down 4.5%) who believe it is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
Commenting on the result, Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine explained how President Trump has shaped the election campaign:
“President Donald Trump’s worldwide tariffs caused extreme market upheaval throughout last week. The ASX200 plunged early in the week before recovering most of its losses by the end of the week, and the Australian Dollar was on a roller-coaster ride”.
“In times of uncertainty, we usually see voters swing towards incumbent governments—and this reaction has been seen in recent weeks with increasing support for the Albanese Government—at least at a two-party preferred level”.
The Coalition have also dealt itself self-inflicted wounds through unpopular policies that nobody asked for, such as the proposed ban on public servants working from home.
The following chart from Wikipedia shows the astonishing collapse in Coalition support since March.
All polls are now pointing to a likely outright Labor victory.
