Sydney turns house price loser

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Sydney’s housing market is losing momentum.

CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index shows that Sydney recorded only a 0.1% rise in the past 28 days, the softest result across the five main capital city markets.

Sydney 28-day change

Sydney’s 0.1% rise in values compares to 0.6% growth in Melbourne, 0.3% in Brisbane, 0.7% in Adelaide, 0.3% in Perth, and 0.3% at the combined 5-city aggregate level.

CoreLogic 28-day change
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Sydney’s auction market has also stalled.

At 59.9% last week, Sydney’s final auction clearance rate remained below 60% for the second consecutive week and was well below Melbourne’s (64.1%) and the combined capital cities (61.8%).

Final auction clearance rates

As illustrated in the next chart, the decline in the auction clearance rates portends further price softness.

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Sydney auctions vs prices

The weakness could be short-lived, however, with financial markets tipping five interest rate cuts from the RBA over the remainder of the year.

Interest rate pricing
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If the market’s prediction came to fruition, the official cash rate would fall to 2.85% by year’s end versus 4.10% currently.

Household interest payments

Such deep interest rate cuts would significantly improve mortgage affordability and borrowing capacity and would be bullish for house prices.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.