Tariffs to the moon, stocks to hell

JPM kicks us off.

Country-Level: we look at Australia, Japan, and the UK as being relative safety havens. China may work, too, given the potential to add fiscal stimulus but that is a lower conviction long.
US Sector Level: Energy and Utilities (ex-AI plays) are the two best longs and look for Lower-Income Discretionary and higher beta TMT plays as being among the more consensus shorts. Separately, parts of Fins (GSIBs, Insurance, Payment Processors) could be safety havens.
FICC: Look for Credit to outperform Equities on the move lower. We like precious metals, crude, and natgas as longs.

CLIENT Q&A: The following includes Q&A from recent conversations between JPMorgan’s Andrew Tyler and their US and International clients as the world is focused on the April 2nd tariff announcement.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.