Forget the cost-of-living crisis. Forget the housing crisis. Forget the energy market. The biggest single factor that will determine the upcoming federal election is US President Donald J Trump.
President Trump’s posturing has single-handedly rescued Canada’s incumbent Liberal progressive government from electoral annihilation, gifting it an election-winning lead.
The Trump effect is also the biggest factor behind the Albanese Labor Government’s resurgence in the polls.
The latest polling from Roy Morgan Research now has the ALP on 53.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 46.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.
Primary support for the ALP increased at the expense of the Coalition, with support for the ALP up 0.5% to 32.5%. The Coalition’s primary support dropped 2% to 33%. This is the closest the two parties have been on primary vote support since mid-October 2023.
If a federal election were held now, the ALP would be returned to government with an increased majority.
Every other poll has also flipped in Labor’s favour.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, explained the polling as follows:
“The Government’s attempt to tie Peter Dutton closely to US President Donald Trump also appears to be working”.
“President Trump’s decision to impose worldwide tariffs—including 10% on Australian exports to the US—has created a very negative reaction amongst many Australians, and to the extent Dutton is associated with Trump, this is a clear negative for the Coalition”.
In other words, the more President Trump agitates, the worse it is for the Coalition.
Regrettably, the Coalition’s excellent gas reservation policy and immigration cuts will not be implemented.
