Victoria is a ‘tax and spend’ nightmare

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Victoria has the highest per capita state debt and the nation’s lowest (AA+) credit rating.

Per capita state debt

Victoria also has the worst debt trajectory in the nation, according to ratings agency S&P Global.

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A new report card from the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) has ranked Victoria as the highest taxing state in Australia, with state taxes now comprising 6.08% of gross state product.

This was higher than NSW (5.43%), Queensland (4.44%), South Australia (4.42%), Tasmania (4.22%), and Tasmania (2.99%).

The IPA report also showed that Victoria’s state debt was the highest in the nation at 22% of gross state product.

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This was almost double the debt burden of South Australia (13%), followed by NSW (11.4%), Tasmania (8%), Western Australia (4.3%), and Queensland (1.1%).

Victorian debt

Source: IPA (via the Herald-Sun)

The reality is that the Victorian government has wasted too much money on bureaucrats and wasteful infrastructure projects.

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Wage costs are Victoria’s greatest expense.

Over the 15 years to 2022-23, Victoria’s public sector headcount expanded by 59%, exceeding the state’s population growth of 29%.

Growth in the public sector

Source: The Australian

During the same 15-year period, the state’s public servant salary bill increased by 152%, exceeding all other Australian states.

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Growth in public sector wage bill

Source: The Australian

According to the most recent budget update, staff expenses (including superannuation) is expected to reach $42.4 billion in 2024-25, up from $19 billion when Labor entered office a decade ago.

Following a decade of cost overruns and poor project choices, infrastructure is becoming a major worry for the Victorian government.

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Victoria recently experienced cost overruns of $2.5 billion for the Metro Tunnel, $4 billion for the West Gate Tunnel, and $16 billion for the North East Link.

The Suburban Rail Loop was originally estimated to cost $50 billion, but the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) projected that building and operating all three phases will cost $200 billion.

A recent analysis from the Victorian Auditor-General’s Office discovered that the costs of 110 major projects have risen by $11 billion since last year.

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VIC infrastructure cost blowout

Nearly half of the 110 large projects assessed by the Auditor-General’s Office had an increase in total anticipated investment.

The Victorian government’s waste and mismanagement are encapsulated by the mega-salaries on offer for Premier Jacinta Allan’s Suburban Rail Loop boondoggle:

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Seven Suburban Rail Loop jobs with taxpayer-funded salaries of up to $419,000 are being filled as Premier Jacinta Allan doubles down on her government’s controversial project.

The positions advertised cover government relations, planning, economic development, strategy and investment, and will cost the SRL Authority up to $1.3m…

Whoever gets this six-figure job will join the ballooning ranks of the SRL’s executives which, according to the SRL Authority’s last annual report, numbered 89 at June 2024, up from 52 in 2022.

Four of these executives earn more than $500,000 a year, eight earn more than $400,000, 24 are paid more than $300,000 and 52 pocket more than $200,000…

Latest publicly available figures reveal that in June 2024, the SRL Authority employed 650 people, up from 544 in June 2023.

Labor has turned Victoria into a nightmare of taxation and spending.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.