Unconventional Economist

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also Chief Economist and co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Victoria’s budget drowns in bureaucratic waste

Victoria has the nation’s highest per capita debt and the lowest credit rating.

The Greens’ housing policy is unworkable

On Wednesday, the Australian Greens announced that the abolition of negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount will be a priority in a minority government.

Coalition voter support collapses

It is hard to believe that the Dutton-led Coalition now faces the prospect of losing seats at the upcoming federal election. The combination of Donald Trump’s trade war and policy own-goals like promising to ban working from home (since revoked) has sent Coalition support plummeting.

Sydney turns house price loser

Sydney’s housing market is losing momentum.

The dream of net zero is over

It’s time to acknowledge that the dream of ‘net zero’ emissions is dead. The world’s top three carbon emitters are China (31.5% of total), the United States (13.0% of total), and India (8.1% of total). In 2023, these three countries accounted for more over half (52.6%) of global carbon emissions.

Aussie inflation expectations crash

Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro published intriguing charts showing the sharp decline in consumer inflation expectations. The following chart shows that the long-running monthly Melbourne Institute measure of consumer inflation expectations has fallen to the long-run (1995–2019) average on a quarterly basis.

Canada’s brutal rental market lesson for Australia

While Australia’s mainstream media and the university and property lobbies continue to lie about the impacts of immigration on the rental market, Canada has provided a dose of reality.

US senator goes into bat for Australia on tariffs

President Trump’s 10% tariff on Australia never made sense. Australia has historically had a gaping trade deficit with the United States. As illustrated in the table below from Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the United States exported (A$88.2b) more than double what it imported (A$37.5b) from Australia in 2023-24.

ANU gaslights again on immigration’s housing impacts

The Australian National University (ANU) is one of the nation’s key purveyors of immigration propaganda.

RBA acknowledges that excessive immigration is killing productivity

Australia’s labour productivity performance has ranked among the lowest in the world. The following chart shows that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) projections for productivity growth have been far too optimistic over the past decade.

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