Australian interest rates

Morgan Stanley with the note.

CBA Senior Economist Stephen Wu has released the bank’s forecasts for the upcoming monthly CPI indicator. CBA expects the monthly indicator to record annual headline inflation of 2.1% in October, near the bottom of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%.

Nothing better sums up the divergence of economic fortunes between young and older Australians than this week’s analysis of spending habits by age from the CBA.

The RBA minutes are out and again it is making absolutely no sense.

RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent spoke about how rising interest rates have hit Australian households particularly hard.

Chanticleer’s advice is a great contrarian port of call. Economist calls for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cash rate early next year are dropping like flies. Even the ones left in the February 2025 camp are warning their calls may be too early (again).

ANZ and Westpac are debating why the RBA has no idea what it is doing.

The general consensus of economists is that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will begin to reduce the official cash rate in the first quarter of 2025.

From the ABS.

3.2% is the six-month annualised wage growth rate.

Westpac sums it up. In the September quarter, the Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.8% (3.5%yr), on par with Westpac’s forecast but a touch softer than the market consensus of 0.9%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ‘s interest rate decision last week was undeniably “hawkish”.

This is wrong.

The Westpac card tracker is not happy.

The November Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) included the following chart showing so-called “administered price inflation” with utilities removed, which are those prices that are (at least partly) regulated or relate to items for which the public sector is a significant provider.

US bonds have been getting a flogging.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its cost-of-living indices for the September quarter.

There is nothing quite like a public servant on a massively bloated wage: Australia’s new Reserve Bank governor Michelle Bullock has received a nearly $400,000 a year pay increase after stepping into the top job.

Bloomberg has smashed the recalcitrant RBA: Australia truly is an island.

The war of words between the Albanese government and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) over inflation and interest rates is heating up.

The RBA was firmly neutral yesterday, but it cut its outlook for growth, wages, inflation, and real household disposable income materially.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has categorically ruled-out rate cuts in the short-term, noting in Tuesday’s monetary policy statement that “underlying inflation is too high” and that “labour market conditions remain tight”.

When you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail: UNSW economics professor Richard Holden said the policy for a one-off cut of 20 per cent to student debt was “blatant vote-buying” in the vein of Queensland Labor’s strategy before the state election.

The latest iteration of the bullhawk has fallen: Warren Hogan abandoned his call for an increase in the Reserve Bank cash rate because inflation fell by more than he expected last quarter, leading the economist to conclude that Australia’s benchmark rate should stay on hold for another year.

This week’s interview on Professor David Flint’s Save The Nation Program.