Australian recession

From Captain Phil Lowe yesterday: “I don’t see a recession on the horizon here,” Dr Lowe told an event in Sydney this morning.

Our Bill at Westpac.

Via Morgan Stanley: #1 – The V-shaped recovery: A key part of why MS expects inflation to emerge is because it anticipates a sharper but shorter recession.

Economist Jason Murphy has questioned whether Australia’s near 30-year recession-free run has made us better-off: Well that’s it.

The March quarter national accounts, released on Wednesday, was another shocker for Australian households.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released the national accounts for the March quarter, which registered a 0.3% decline in real GDP over the quarter and just 1.4% growth over the year. On a per capita basis, real GDP slumped by 0.7% over the quarter and was flat (0.0%) over the year.

Changing the goal posts is what the housing obsessed Australia does best.

ANZ has some good news for us.

Treasurer Scott Morrison’s declaration that the great Australian adjustment is over has lasted for a full four days.

The US dollar rebounded strongly last night as Brexit dominoes began to fall in Italian banks, oil prices and UK property: The yen is unstoppable and hinting at carry trade crisis reversal.

You can always tell when the heat is on global credit markets by the mushrooming number of articles celebrating Australian bank strength.

What a wonderfully hopeful species the human being is!

From Morgan Stanley: We see GBP moving to 1.25-1.30 and 15-20% downside to European equities relative to Thursday’s levels.

The US dollar was soft: Euro and yen firmer: Commodity currencies split with anything oil related down and anything metals related up: Gold was soft: Oil softer: Base metals yawned again: Miners were firm: EM and US  high yield ignored oil oddly: Not much to add today.

The US dollar gapped lower on better Brexit polls: The BOJ will have to do something about this soon: Commodity currencies launched: Gold was firm: Oil too: And base metals: Miners rallied: As did US and ME high yield: Better Brexit polls so stocks lifted and bonds fell.

According to Wikipaedia “chaos theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with complex systems whose behaviour is highly sensitive to slight changes in conditions, so that small alterations can give rise to strikingly great consequences”.

Markets are a dear in the Brexit headlights and you can’t really blame them.

Nobody should ever confuse markets with ethics or a human spirit.

For a year or so MB has been warning that we’re entering dangerous territory for the global business cycle.

Brexit is threatening to reignite the Mining GFC.