European Economy

Not according Deutsche. The two main take-aways of the election results are (1) the centrist majority in the European parliament is holding as the the right did not outperform and (2) the biggest impact could be at the national level with Macron calling a legislative election.

Europe is plunging into recession: Led by manufacturing: Services catching down: The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index fell for a second month running in June to 52.0, from 55.1 in May.

It is my view that the US entering a goodly recession.

Goldman on what is fast becoming the pattern everywhere.

ISW with the report.

TSLombard with an update on the Ukraine War.

The first major inflation print of the year hit overnight, with German inflation results for December surprisingly lower than expected, after being in double digit territory for most of the latter part of 2022.

Charlie McElligott of Nomura not holding back today.

Add Italy to your global tail risks list as a new fascist government romps home in the polls.

What do you do when inflation takes hold of your economy, wages soar, yield spreads explode with an external deficit, and the currency collapses?

Winter is coming.

Eurostoxx futures have slumped in early Asian trade as weekend news of the shutting of the gas pipeline from Ruzzia to Europe has ignited the energy crisis.

As noted earlier today, global gas prices have been smashed in the past 24 hours: Has the super-spike topped out?

Nordea with a worthwhile piece.

Readers will know that my base case is for a global recession sooner rather than later as the world’s three major economies are shocked simultaneously by US rate hikes, European war and energy shocks, and the Chinese property crash plus OMICRON strife.

The Atlantic thinks it is: Talk of stalemate obscures the dynamic quality of war.

Nordea with the note.

As various hysterics, led by “Psycho” Morrison, fearmonger over Ukraine, I am wondering this morning if the crisis isn’t already past its peak.

There will be a range of commodity impacts if Russia and Ukraine end up in open war.

Going into the northern hemisphere winter without much tangible data of what the Omicron variant is doing to the population, plus surging protests against any measure to contain the pandemic, Europe is facing a crisis as case numbers surge past 350,000 per day.

More folks following the MB lead.

Will wonders never cease.

Nordea with the note.