US Economy

Deutsche with an excellent wrap. 1. Free trade agreements (FTAs) are not safe.

Steven Blitz at TSLombard is excellent at times.

A great piece from Domain today.

Markets are breaking for Trump with AUD and bonds down hard.

Greg Sheridan says Trump: A Donald Trump presidency would probably be better for Australia than a Kamala Harris presidency.

The aggregated polls have been swinging: The swing states are a dead heat: I am concerned that these polls cannot be trusted.

JPM notes that markets are pricing for Trump trades. 1. All in on Trump Themes? Hedge Fund flows have shown a strong preference for Republican themes with Rep Winners (JPREPWIN) bought over the past few weeks, putting positioning near ~2yr highs, while Dem Winners (JPDEMWIN) were sold throughout the year and positioning at multi-year low.

The popular vote is still firmly with Kamala Harris: But swing states have narrowed with critical PA nearly a dead heat: Betting odds still favour Harris: It’s going to be tight.

Goldman with the note.

Albert Edwards on the US economy. I must apologise for falling asleep on the job. I hadn’t spotted that the US personal saving ratio (SR) had slid all the way back to what I would describe as crisis levels.

The weirdo hanging around a Mar-a-Lago with an AK-47 appears to have done Donald Trump no good in polling.

The big one tonight is US inflation.

It appears the Kamala Harris polling honeymoon is over: It is across the board: Betting markets have Trump ahead again: Swing states are too close to call: All a bit odd given what is happening to oil.

TSLombard says 25bps.

Goldman sees a Harris victory now. Where things stand: Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by around 1.5pp in national polling averages and is very narrowly ahead in the swing state that would provide the winning electoral vote (currently this appears to be Pennsylvania).

Morgan Stanley with the note.

It’s still early days, and it’s still a honeymoon, but Kamala Harris is on a roll.

Democrats now have a handy lead in White House polling.

Goldman with the note. President Joe Biden exited the 2024 presidential race today (July21) and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.

The news this morning is that POTUS Joe Biden will serve out his term but will NOT contest the Democratic nomination for the November election.

Here’s a thread for y’all on the failed assassination of Donald Trump.

Morgan Stanley with the note. We expect Core CPI inflation at 0.27% (0.2%M consensus, 3.5%Y), higher than May’s weak print but still the second lowest read this year.

Credit Agricole with the note.